Western Conference Playoff Preview

Here is my look at the first round playoff series in the Western Conference 

#1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #8 Utah Jazz

The Lakers took two of three in the regular season, faltering once in Utah. Andrew Bynum is back for the Lakers, which means trouble for any team standing in their way. Up first for the Lake Show is a Utah team that went 33-8 at home this season, but stumbled on the road with a 15-26 record. The Jazz played a great part of their season without star power forward Carlos Boozer, and were led by Deron Williams who averaged 19.4 points and 10.7 assists this season. While Utah is a dangerous team and can be very pesky, the fact is they don’t have the depth or athleticism to match that of the Lakers. There are far too many weapons for Utah to stop in this series. Unless the Jazz can prove that they can stop Kobe Bryant OR Lamar Odom, OR Pau Gasol, OR Andrew Bynum on a regular basis, they simply will not win this series. LA is the more physical team and their bench has been phenomenal all year. The Lakers are 9-0 all time in first- round series as a #1 seed, and I expect the Lakers to continue that streak rather easily. It will be tough for Utah to win a game at Staples Center, where in the regular season they lost two games by a combined 26 points. The home-court advantage for Utah at EnergySolutions Arena is great for the Jazz, but it won’t be enough to keep the Lakers from winning a game or two. In the end, Utah’s 1-20 road record against teams with winning records gives little hope for the upset. Depending on whether the Lakers win one or two games in Utah will determine how long this series lasts.

Pick- Lakers in five

#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets

In my opinion, this is the most intriguing matchup of the first round. This matchup features two of the premier point guards in the NBA with Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups. Billups has been the MVP for Denver this season, establishing himself as the leader of the team, and turning Denver into more a defensive oriented team. Carmelo Anthony led the Nuggets in scoring this year, averaging 23 points per game while grabbing 7 rebounds as well. Denver’s bench is much better than New Orleans, and features energy players like J.R. Smith, and Chris “The Birdman” Anderson (who ironically are two former Hornets, and are one of the biggest reasons why Denver's bench has been so good this year). New Orleans is led by Chris Paul; an MVP candidate averaging 23 points, 11 assists, and 3 steals per game this year. Paul has stepped his game up even more since the All-Star break, averaging 25 points and 11 assists. The problem is Paul’s supporting cast really isn’t that great outside of David West. The Hornets low post presence consists of Tyson Chandler, who has been battling injuries all year and really has found no rhythm. They were 24^th in the NBA in rebounding this year, the lowest rank of any playoff team. Both teams had nearly identical defensive ratings in the regular season, but Denver’s offense has been superior to that of New Orleans. The Hornets struggled mightily down the stretch, going 10-11 in their final 21 games, while the Nuggets have been eliminated in the first-round of the playoffs six years in a row. With home-court advantage, and veteran leadership from Billups, the Nuggets should advance to the second round.

Pick- Nuggets in six

#3 San Antonio Spurs vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks

 This could be the upset of the first round in the Western Conference. Manu Ginobili is out for the Spurs, Tim Duncan’s knees aren’t in the best shape, and the Mavericks will have Josh Howard back. Dallas is 33-19 in games that Howard has played in this year, while San Antonio is 22-16 without Ginobili. Dallas has been a very up and down team this year, and always seems to have trouble guarding Duncan and Tony Parker. The positive for the Mavericks is that they have arguably played their best basketball down the stretch. I think Dallas has the upper hand in this series with Ginobili not playing. Lets not forget the Spurs have just as much trouble guarding Dirk Nowitzki as the Mavericks do guarding Tony Parker or Tim Duncan. Ginobili is so important to this Spurs team that I am picking the upset here and going with Dallas. The combination of Jason Kidd, Dirk Nowitzki, and Josh Howard plus the likely Sixth Man of the Year Jason Terry will be too much for San Antonio to stop.

Pick- Mavericks in six

#4 Portland Trail Blazers vs. #5 Houston Rockets

This is going to be a very interesting series in the fact that if someone is going to beat the Lakers in the Western Conference, I really think it will be one of these two teams. Portland exceeded many expectations this year, winning 13 more games than last year and turning the Rose Garden back into one of those venues where nobody wants to play. Both of these teams are fairly even on paper, and the Rockets have played very well without Tracy McGrady, going 22-8 since his injury that ended his season. I think they only thing in this series that favors in Portland is home-court advantage. The Blazers went 34-7 at the Rose Garden this year, while winning eight games by 15 or more points since the All-Star break. The Rockets took two out of three from the Blazers during the regular season, with the lone loss coming thanks to Brandon Roy’s miracle three pointer at the buzzer. This will also be the first trip to the playoffs for many of the players on Portland, which works in Houston’s favor. Houston should have the advantage on defense with guys like Ron Artest and Shane Battier guarding Brandon Roy, and the Rockets ability to crash the boards with Yao Ming and Luis Scola will be a lot for Portland to handle. Having said all that, I still like the Blazers to win this series, their slow paced steady of play will not be affected in this series. The young players on Portland have improved quite a bit during the second half of the season, which should bode well in the playoffs. I think this series will go all seven games, with home-court advantage giving the edge to Portland.

 Pick- Blazers in seven