NIT Bound

As expected, the Arizona State Sun Devils were not one of the 65 teams that received an NCAA Tournament at-large bid on Selection Sunday. Instead the Sun Devils will be competing in the National Invitation Tournament (NIT), which starts on Tuesday. ASU is one of the four #1 seeds in the 32-team tournament, and will start off by hosting the #8 seed Jacksonville Dolphins Tuesday night.

If the Sun Devils beat the Dolphins then they will move on to the round of 16, and face the winner of Seton Hall- Texas Tech, who are the #4 and #5 seeds respectively. My Sports Lounge co-host Andrew Gruman told me that ASU will likely have to play Seton Hall or Texas Tech on the road, since Wells Fargo Arena will be hosting the Women's NCAA Tournament, and the Women's NIT next weekend (Of course this is all assuming that ASU beats Jacksonville in the first place). If the Sun Devils have to go on the road, then I would not be surprised to see them lose in the round of 16, but what do I know? After all I picked ASU to beat Stanford in the Pac-10 Tournament, and look what happened there.

I'd be lying if I said that I wasn't upset that ASU is in the NIT. It's disappointing knowing that the Sun Devils could have easily been in the NCAA Tournament. Even though ASU likely would have lost in the first round, getting to the tournament would have been a major accomplishment in itself, especially when you consider that this year's tournament berth would have come after losing James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph, who accounted for 68% of ASU's offense last year, to the NBA draft.

I'm hoping that ASU going to the NIT will send the message to Coach Herb Sendek that he needs to put together a tougher out of conference schedule. ASU has won 20 or more games in Sendek's last three seasons here in Tempe, yet they have just one NCAA Tournament appearance to show for it. A big reason for the NIT berths is because of the weak out of conference opponents that ASU plays. This season the Sun Devils played teams like Western Illinois, USC Upstate, San Francisco, and Delaware State, to name a few. That's four wins that you can essentially throw away, because the NCAA Tournament selection committee is not impressed by those cupcake opponents.

Look at the Pac-10 Champion California Golden Bears for example: They had just one more win in the Pac-10 than ASU, but they had a highly respectable out of conference schedule in which they played teams like Syracuse, Ohio State, and New Mexico, who are all teams that are a #3 seed or higher in the NCAA Tournament. Even though Cal lost all three of those games, in addition to other high RPI games, a loss to a team with a good RPI is more respectable and resinates more with the committee rather than a win over a cupcake team. Don't get me wrong, I love Coach Sendek, and he's done a marvelous job rebuilding the ASU Basketball program, but it seems to me that he and ASU favor easy wins rather than challenging themselves.

Another example of a tough out of conference schedule paying off is back in 2008, when Arizona got in the NCAA Tournament over ASU. Even though the Sun Devils had a better overall record (19-12) than Arizona (19-14) and even though the Sun Devils swept Arizona during the regular season, the Wildcats still made the NCAA Tournament over ASU. Why? Because the Cats had a top five schedule while the Sun Devils had a horrible out of conference schedule. ASU must win games and play tough competition in order to get more respect from the selection committee.

With that being said, I do believe Herb will schedule a tougher out of conference in the next couple seasons. ASU is a more established program now than it was two or three years ago, so I've got to think that big name teams will have no problem facing the Sun Devils. Not only will a tougher out of conference schedule help ASU's future tournament chances, but it will also put more people in Wells Fargo arena.

For now I'm sure the only thing Coach Sendek and company are focused on is Jacksonville. The game is Tuesday night, at 8:oo p.m. on ESPN2. Here's to hoping that ASU comes out strong and plays with some fire. Go Devils!

Crumbling on the Big Stage

I've got friends who grew up as ASU fans that have repeatedly told me that they've suffered from "ASU heartbreaks" for over 20 years. I didn't understand what they were referring to since I never really followed ASU football and basketball until last year, however after last night's Pac-10 Quarterfinal game against Stanford, I finally realized what they meant when they referred to "ASU heartbreaks."

The #2 seeded Sun Devils laid an egg last night, as they lost to the #7 seed Stanford Cardinal 70-61. I wrote in my preview of the game that the only way Stanford would win is if ASU couldn't hit their outside shots, and if Stanford was able to pick apart ASU's zone defense. Unfortunately both of those scenarios took place, as the Sun Devils shot just 39% from the field, while Stanford shot 55%. ASU committed 17 turnovers in the game, against a Stanford team that ranked last in the Pac-10 in nearly every defensive statistical category.

ASU's loss most likely means that they will not receive an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. Had the Sun Devils defeated Stanford, I think they would have been in since so many other bubble teams lost yesterday. ASU will now have to wait until Selection Sunday to learn their postseason fate, but in the meantime they can reflect on how they played one of their worst games in arguably the most important game of the year. The Sun Devils beat Stanford twice in the regular season, yet when the stakes were high, they came out looking lethargic and looking like a team that figured that they would win if they simply just showed up to the arena. It looked like they were playing with no sense of urgency, where as Stanford was the team that played with more desperation, as they were up by as many as 15 points in the second half.

There are still some people that believe ASU should be in the NCAA Tournament, but to be completely honest, ASU has no business being the big dance. If you really look closely at their record and the opponents that they played, there is nothing impressive that stands out. ASU's best win of the year was against San Diego State, who's in fourth place in the Mountain West Conference. ASU had a record of 3-6 in the "big games of the year," take a look:

Duke 64- ASU 53

Baylor 64- ASU 61

ASU 55- San Diego State 52

ASU 71- Washington 46

Arizona 77- ASU 58

California 78- ASU 70

Washington 79- ASU 56

ASU 73- Arizona 69

California 62- ASU 46

Sure ASU has a 22-10 record, but seven of those wins came against garbage opponents: Western Illinois, Texas State, San Francisco, Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Delaware State, UC Santa Barbara, and USC Upstate. ASU has won 20 or more games in the last three seasons, but they will only have one NCAA Tournament appearance to show for it assuming they don't get an at-large bid this year.

I think the loss to Stanford is so painful for Sun Devil fans because expectations were so low at the beginning of the season, and no one could have imagined that ASU would get over 20 wins or even be in a position to make the NCAA Tournament. The fact that ASU worked so hard to be on the verge of getting an at-large bid, then let it all slip away with a terrible effort against a terrible team is heartbreaking. Like I said before, I believe the Sun Devils would have been in the NCAA Tournament had they defeated Stanford. Could you imagine how impressive back-to-back tournament berths would have looked for the ASU program, especially considering that this year's team would have made it a year after losing James Harden and Jeff Pendegraph, who accounted for 68% of ASU's offense last year to the NBA? Instead the Sun Devils will likely settle for the NIT for the second time in three seasons, in what is certainly another case of "ASU heartbreaks."

Anyways the Pac-10 Tournament Semi-finals are tonight, and I will be there live at Staples Center. Here are my picks for the two games.

#1 Cal vs #5 UCLA: my pick- UCLA

#3 Washington vs #7 Stanford: my pick- Washington

My record in my quarterfinals picks: 3-1 (Correctly picked UCLA, Cal, and Washington. I picked ASU to beat Stanford.)

Pac-10 Tournament Quarterfinals Predictions Part 2

I correctly picked both winners in the early session of the Pac-10 Tournament Quarterfinals, now let's see if I can correctly pick the late session winners too. Here are my quick thoughts and predictions.

#2 Arizona State vs #7 Stanford

The Sun Devils swept the season series with the Cardinal, and what stood out in both games was the dominance of ASU senior center Eric Boateng. Take a look at his combined stats from the two meetings

14-of-14 shooting from the field

32 points

13 rebounds.

The fact is Stanford has nobody down low that can match up with Boateng, which the senior used to his advantage in both games during the regular season. Other than Landry Fields and Jeremy Green, Stanford really doesn't have anyone to turn to in a "must score situation". The Sun Devils' defense gave Stanford numerous problems during the regular season, and I expect much of the same in tonight's game. ASU has won eight of its last 10 games and has surprised everyone with their regular season accomplishments, in which they finished 22-9 a year after losing 68% of its offense to the NBA. The Sun Devils must win tonight's game if they want to get an NCAA Tournament at-large bid, and I think Pac-10 Coach of the Year Herb Sendek will have his team ready to play. A big key in determining ASU's fate will be by how well they shoot the ball from the field. The Sun Devils are 40-2 in the Herb Sendek era when they shoot 50% or better from the floor. Despite their recent struggles, Rihards Kuksiks, and Ty Abbott should pick up their play. The only way ASU will lose this game is if they struggle from the floor, and if Stanford is able to pick apart the zone defense.

My pick- Arizona State

#3 Washington vs #6 Oregon State

Washington, who has won the last six meetings against the Beavers, was a team that everyone thought would be contending for a Pac-10 Title at the beginning of the season. Now the Huskies, who were the once ranked in the top 25, must win the Pac-10 Tournament in order to be in the NCAA Tournament. Washington is led by Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas, who players that can take over a game at any given time like when the Huskies defeated the Beavers 82-70 just five days ago. Washington will also need a strong performance from Matthew Bryan-Amaning, who has formed into one of the top players for the Huskies. The key to this game is the turnovers. Oregon State is one of the best defensive teams in the Pac-10, as they implement a 1-3-1 zone that is tough to break down. Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year Seth Tarver and the Beavers led the Pac-10 in steals during the regular season, and a lot of their offense comes in transition scoring. If the Huskies turn the ball over a lot, then the Beavs could pull off the upset. Despite Washington struggling on the road this season, I still think they are the second best team in the Pac-10 behind Cal. They are very athletic, and their style of play suits very well in a tournament. Unless Washington struggles hitting their shots, I see them winning this one and moving on to the semi-finals.

My pick- Washington

Pac-10 Tournament Quarterfinals Predictions

I'm back home for Spring Break. In less than two months I will be home for the summer. It's amazing how fast the time goes. It seemed like it was just the other day that I was at ASU Basketball Media Day getting ready for the 2009-2010 regular season, and now four months later it's time for the postseason tournaments.

The 2010 Pac-10 Tournament started last night with the play-in game, as the 8th seeded Oregon Ducks defeated the 9th seeded Washington State Cougars 82-80 in overtime. The quarterfinals begin in about 40 minutes, so here are my quick thoughts and predictions for each game, starting with the early session.

#4 Arizona Wildcats vs #5 UCLA Bruins:

UA defeated UCLA both times in the regular season. The two teams met in Tucson last weekend in a game that ended in dramatic fashion, as the Wildcats were down by as many as 13 points in the second half, but followed the lead of Nic Wise in a furious comeback that propelled the Cats to a 78-73 win. UCLA then proceeded to lose its following game to Arizona State, as the Bruins only managed to put up 46 points against the Sun Devils' stout zone defense. Despite the fact that UA has had UCLA's number this year, it's hard for me to envision them beating the Bruins three times in one season, and especially since UCLA is coming off of two bad losses. Ben Howland will most certainly have the Bruins ready given that he's had four days to prepare for the Cats. These two historically rich teams have a lot to play for, as winning the Pac-10 Tournament is the only way either team can make the NCAA Tournament ( Arizona has the longest NCAA Tournament appearance streak in the nation at 25). Since USC is banned from the tournament due to NCAA violations, UCLA will be the only team representing Los Angeles, and therefore will have more fans in attendance than any other team, giving them the home-court feel, which I think will help spark the Bruins to victory.

My pick- UCLA

#1 California vs #8 Oregon

This game should be an easy win for Cal, who is clearly the hottest team in the Pac-10 right now. The conference champions have won seven of their last eight games, and their margin of victory has been in double-digits for all seven of those wins. Cal also has the advantage in the fact that they will be playing an Oregon team that had to play a late overtime game less than 18 hours ago. While Oregon may have Tajuan Porter, who showed last night that he can take over a game offensively, the fact is Cal has too many weapons for most teams in the Pac-10 to handle. The Bears' big senior combination of Patrick Christopher, Jamal Boykin, Theo Robertson, and the Pac-10 Player of the Year Jerome Randle all average more than 12 points per game, and should prove to be way too much for Oregon. This should be the last game in the Ducks' season, and the last game in the Oregon coaching career of Ernie Kent.

My pick- Cal

My predictions for the late games will be coming in a couple of hours.