Thursday, June 3, 2010

NBA Finals Prediction

The time is finally here. We're a little under two hours away from the start of the 2010 NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers. I wouldn't be me unless I waited until the last possible moment to make a prediction, so here we go.

These two teams are clearly different from the last time they faced each other in the 2008 Finals. For the Lakers, they have Andrew Bynum, who did not play at all in the series two years ago. Bynum's not 100% healthy, but his presence alone should make a difference as he'll be in charge of bodying up with Kendrick Perkins, and providing length in the paint against the Celtics guards, mainly Rajon Rondo. The Lakers also have Ron Artest, who will be in charge of containing Paul Pierce, the 2008 Finals MVP. In the two meetings in the regular season, Pierce averaged 13 points and shot under 40% from the floor with Artest guarding him. I don't expect Ron to completely shut down Pierce, but I do think he'll have a decent impact on Pierce's offensive output this series.

The Celtics' bench is also not as good and as deep as it was in 2008. Instead of James Posey, PJ Brown, Eddie House, and Leon Powe, the C's now have Rasheed Wallace, Nate Robinson, Tony Allen, and Glen "Big Baby" Davis. Posey was really important for the Celtics in 2008 because he played great defense on Kobe Bryant, in addition to being a great three-point shooter.

While the points I made above are important, I think the biggest difference between now and 2008 is that the Lakers are more experienced. They know what to expect from the Celtics and won't be as shell struck as they were two years ago. The Lakers are a more physical team now than they were in 2008, and they also have the revenge factor in their heads. LA was humiliated in Boston two years ago, and obviously both sides remember that. Kobe Bryant is arguably playing his best basketball of his career, and I'm sure he will do as much as he can to make sure the Lakers don't lose to the Celtics in the Finals for the second time in three years.

Here are a couple of scenarios that went through my mind before finally making a pick. Keep in mind that the homecourt format for the Finals is 2-3-2. So games one and two will be played in Los Angeles, games three through five will be played in Boston, and games six and seven will be back in Los Angeles.

- The Celtics are too good to lose the first two games at Staples Center. They were the best road team in the NBA this season, and I've got to think that they will win at least one of the games.

- The Lakers are too good to lose games three through five in Boston. I don't think the Celtics will win all three, but at the same time I don't think the Lakers can win two of the three. I've got to think the C's will win two in Boston.

- I can't imagine Kobe Bryant and the Lakers losing an NBA Championship on their homecourt, and especially to the Celtics. If Boston doesn't win this series in five games, they won't win the series at all. With that being said, one of the above scenarios won't happen, and I think it's the first one. The Lakers will win the first two games in Los Angeles. LA is 28-3 at Staples Center in the last three postseasons, and this isn't just any ordinary Finals matchup, it's the Celtics and a it's chance for revenge. The crowd will be fired up and ready to go.

- I doubt this series actually goes seven games, like most people think it will. Only three Finals matchups have gone seven games in the last 27 years.

My prediction- Lakers in six