If the Sun Devils beat the Dolphins then they will move on to the round of 16, and face the winner of Seton Hall- Texas Tech, who are the #4 and #5 seeds respectively. My Sports Lounge co-host Andrew Gruman told me that ASU will likely have to play Seton Hall or Texas Tech on the road, since Wells Fargo Arena will be hosting the Women's NCAA Tournament, and the Women's NIT next weekend (Of course this is all assuming that ASU beats Jacksonville in the first place). If the Sun Devils have to go on the road, then I would not be surprised to see them lose in the round of 16, but what do I know? After all I picked ASU to beat Stanford in the Pac-10 Tournament, and look what happened there.
I'd be lying if I said that I wasn't upset that ASU is in the NIT. It's disappointing knowing that the Sun Devils could have easily been in the NCAA Tournament. Even though ASU likely would have lost in the first round, getting to the tournament would have been a major accomplishment in itself, especially when you consider that this year's tournament berth would have come after losing James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph, who accounted for 68% of ASU's offense last year, to the NBA draft.
I'm hoping that ASU going to the NIT will send the message to Coach Herb Sendek that he needs to put together a tougher out of conference schedule. ASU has won 20 or more games in Sendek's last three seasons here in Tempe, yet they have just one NCAA Tournament appearance to show for it. A big reason for the NIT berths is because of the weak out of conference opponents that ASU plays. This season the Sun Devils played teams like Western Illinois, USC Upstate, San Francisco, and Delaware State, to name a few. That's four wins that you can essentially throw away, because the NCAA Tournament selection committee is not impressed by those cupcake opponents.
Look at the Pac-10 Champion California Golden Bears for example: They had just one more win in the Pac-10 than ASU, but they had a highly respectable out of conference schedule in which they played teams like Syracuse, Ohio State, and New Mexico, who are all teams that are a #3 seed or higher in the NCAA Tournament. Even though Cal lost all three of those games, in addition to other high RPI games, a loss to a team with a good RPI is more respectable and resinates more with the committee rather than a win over a cupcake team. Don't get me wrong, I love Coach Sendek, and he's done a marvelous job rebuilding the ASU Basketball program, but it seems to me that he and ASU favor easy wins rather than challenging themselves.
Another example of a tough out of conference schedule paying off is back in 2008, when Arizona got in the NCAA Tournament over ASU. Even though the Sun Devils had a better overall record (19-12) than Arizona (19-14) and even though the Sun Devils swept Arizona during the regular season, the Wildcats still made the NCAA Tournament over ASU. Why? Because the Cats had a top five schedule while the Sun Devils had a horrible out of conference schedule. ASU must win games and play tough competition in order to get more respect from the selection committee.
With that being said, I do believe Herb will schedule a tougher out of conference in the next couple seasons. ASU is a more established program now than it was two or three years ago, so I've got to think that big name teams will have no problem facing the Sun Devils. Not only will a tougher out of conference schedule help ASU's future tournament chances, but it will also put more people in Wells Fargo arena.
For now I'm sure the only thing Coach Sendek and company are focused on is Jacksonville. The game is Tuesday night, at 8:oo p.m. on ESPN2. Here's to hoping that ASU comes out strong and plays with some fire. Go Devils!
Your thesis is based on the proposition that ASU could have won these hypothetical out of conference games. Or that they would somehow have been better off losing them. They need to play AND WIN the OOC games. Losing OOC to stiffer competition is better? It certainly changes the coaching that goes on. Build on success? Or build on less positive outcomes and contend with morale issues as well?
ReplyDeleteI am willing to let the coaching staff (who know a lot more about this than I do) decide whether to use the early games as gentler tune ups, or take on serious stretches.
Also, many out of conference games are scheduled several years in advance, when the exact personnel are unknown, and sometimes these games are on the schedule to honor deals brokered in years past.
Sendek has been scheduling cupcakes like Delaware State for a long time. Does it really make sense to complain about this while enjoying the steady improvement his teams make? This is a judgement call, a style issue, not a sure thing either way. When he can regularly field Duke-like teams (K is well know for stiff competition early on), then a Duke-like schedule makes sense, until then...I am going to assume Sendek knows best. I bet he doesn't schedule cupcakes in an attempt to have less success.