The #2 seeded Sun Devils laid an egg last night, as they lost to the #7 seed Stanford Cardinal 70-61. I wrote in my preview of the game that the only way Stanford would win is if ASU couldn't hit their outside shots, and if Stanford was able to pick apart ASU's zone defense. Unfortunately both of those scenarios took place, as the Sun Devils shot just 39% from the field, while Stanford shot 55%. ASU committed 17 turnovers in the game, against a Stanford team that ranked last in the Pac-10 in nearly every defensive statistical category.
ASU's loss most likely means that they will not receive an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. Had the Sun Devils defeated Stanford, I think they would have been in since so many other bubble teams lost yesterday. ASU will now have to wait until Selection Sunday to learn their postseason fate, but in the meantime they can reflect on how they played one of their worst games in arguably the most important game of the year. The Sun Devils beat Stanford twice in the regular season, yet when the stakes were high, they came out looking lethargic and looking like a team that figured that they would win if they simply just showed up to the arena. It looked like they were playing with no sense of urgency, where as Stanford was the team that played with more desperation, as they were up by as many as 15 points in the second half.
There are still some people that believe ASU should be in the NCAA Tournament, but to be completely honest, ASU has no business being the big dance. If you really look closely at their record and the opponents that they played, there is nothing impressive that stands out. ASU's best win of the year was against San Diego State, who's in fourth place in the Mountain West Conference. ASU had a record of 3-6 in the "big games of the year," take a look:
Duke 64- ASU 53
Baylor 64- ASU 61
ASU 55- San Diego State 52
ASU 71- Washington 46
Arizona 77- ASU 58
California 78- ASU 70
Washington 79- ASU 56
ASU 73- Arizona 69
California 62- ASU 46
Sure ASU has a 22-10 record, but seven of those wins came against garbage opponents: Western Illinois, Texas State, San Francisco, Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Delaware State, UC Santa Barbara, and USC Upstate. ASU has won 20 or more games in the last three seasons, but they will only have one NCAA Tournament appearance to show for it assuming they don't get an at-large bid this year.
I think the loss to Stanford is so painful for Sun Devil fans because expectations were so low at the beginning of the season, and no one could have imagined that ASU would get over 20 wins or even be in a position to make the NCAA Tournament. The fact that ASU worked so hard to be on the verge of getting an at-large bid, then let it all slip away with a terrible effort against a terrible team is heartbreaking. Like I said before, I believe the Sun Devils would have been in the NCAA Tournament had they defeated Stanford. Could you imagine how impressive back-to-back tournament berths would have looked for the ASU program, especially considering that this year's team would have made it a year after losing James Harden and Jeff Pendegraph, who accounted for 68% of ASU's offense last year to the NBA? Instead the Sun Devils will likely settle for the NIT for the second time in three seasons, in what is certainly another case of "ASU heartbreaks."
Anyways the Pac-10 Tournament Semi-finals are tonight, and I will be there live at Staples Center. Here are my picks for the two games.
#1 Cal vs #5 UCLA: my pick- UCLA
#3 Washington vs #7 Stanford: my pick- Washington
My record in my quarterfinals picks: 3-1 (Correctly picked UCLA, Cal, and Washington. I picked ASU to beat Stanford.)
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