Thursday, October 15, 2009

NLCS Insight: Dodgers Improved From Last Go Around

The National League Championship Series gets underway today, as the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. These two teams met in the NLCS last year, which the Phillies won four games to one. The Dodgers won four of the seven meetings between the two during the regular season.

So what's changed in the last year? Well for one, the Dodgers are no longer dependent on Manny Ramirez like they were last year in the NLCS, in which he batted .533, hit two home runs, and drove in seven runs. Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp have emerged as very productive hitters this season, as the two hit 57 home runs, and drove in 207 runs combined during the regular season. In addition, the Dodgers bench is much better than it was last year. Guys like Jim Thome, Mark Loretta, Orlando Hudson, Juan Pierre, and Brad Ausmus really give you everything that you need in a bench. They are experienced, and they are versatile, both of which are factors that gives any team a great chance to win in the playoffs. The Dodger offense was able to beat Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals, both of whom are favorites to win the NL Cy Young Award. The offense will have their work cut out for them again, as they will face the Phillies duo of Cole Hamels, last year's World Series MVP, and Cliff Lee. The fact is this Dodger offense has found ways to win all season long, and they are going to have to do so again in this series.

Another thing that has changed in favor of the Dodgers is their pitching. Unlike last year, the Dodgers have lefty pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf, both of whom were brilliant in the Divisional Series against the St. Louis Cardinals. Kershaw had the third-best OPS against left-handed batters this year, which bodes well for the Dodgers since the Phillies have three left-handed batters who hit 30+ home runs this season in Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez. Another pleasant surprise for the Dodgers pitching staff has been Vicente Padilla, who is slated to be the starter for Game 2. Padilla, who was let go in the middle of the season by the Texas Rangers, has done nothing but good things for the Dodgers. He went 4-0 in his seven starts during the regular season, and had an ERA of 3.20. Padilla was on the mound for Game 3 of the Divisional Series, in which he threw seven scoreless innings en route to a win. In the NLDS, the Dodgers pitching staff had a combined ERA of 2.00, and shut down a St. Louis Cardinals offense that was one of the best in the majors during the regular season.

The final thing that has changed for the Dodgers is their bullpen. They are more talented, and they are deeper than they were last year. The Dodger bullpen had the best ERA and WHIP in baseball this year, in addition to having the second-most wins. Jonathan Broxton is one of the best closers in the game, George Sherrill is a great lefty who is perfect for late innings, and Hong-Chih Kuo gives the Dodgers another lefty to match up with the Phillies left-handed bats.

The biggest factor that could work in LA's favor is the revenge factor. Last year the Dodgers were embarrassed by this Phillies team, and they haven't forgotten that at all. The Dodgers have a bit more on their side this year with a more experienced team, and homefield advantage. The problem is homefield advantage is a little overrated in baseball, so I don't see that being a deciding factor in this series. The fact is this Phillies team has one of the best offenses I have seen in a while, and it's hard to take down the defending champions, especially when they added former AL Cy Young Award winner in Cliff Lee to their pitching staff. I think it will be a lot closer than the 4-1 series last year, but I still see the same result, as the Philadelphia Phillies will win the series and move on to the Fall Classic.

Prediction- Phillies in six



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